As the AFL’s Gather Round shifts to the Barossa Valley, the Brisbane Lions find themselves off the main stage. No Adelaide Oval. No big-city backdrop. Instead, Lyndoch.
But the stakes don’t change.
The Lions—back-to-back premiers—enter Round 5 unbeaten in Gather Round history. North Melbourne arrive as one of 2026’s early movers, pushing into the top six and shedding the “easy-beat” label.
This is no longer about whether North can compete. It’s about whether they can sustain it against a team that knows how to win in this setting.
A Record That Still Matters
Brisbane’s Gather Round dominance still frames this matchup. They dismantled North Melbourne in 2023 and 2024 by 75 and 70 points respectively, before that pattern broke with a draw in Hobart last year.
That result matters. It shifted this contest from predictable to competitive. Brisbane still carries the edge—but not the same certainty.
Ins and Outs: What Changes the Game
Brisbane Lions
- In: Harris Andrews (suspension), Hugh McCluggage (calf)
- Impact: Restores defensive structure and adds midfield polish
North Melbourne
- Out: Finn O’Sullivan (fractured jaw)
- Impact: Reduces midfield depth and rotation flexibility
Stability Returns at the Right Time
Andrews’ inclusion immediately reshapes Brisbane’s defensive structure. His intercept marking allows the Lions to defend higher and exit cleaner—critical against a pressure-heavy opponent.
Around the ball, Brisbane still leans on Neale, Dunkley and Berry, with McCluggage adding composure. If the Lions win clearance, they don’t just win possession—they control tempo.
The Ashcroft Shift
What’s evolving in Brisbane’s game is how they move the ball.
Will Ashcroft is central to that change, coming off a 36-disposal performance and consistently pushing into elite territory. Levi Ashcroft complements that with balance ahead of the ball, linking phases rather than finishing them.
The shift is subtle but important: Brisbane is moving faster, using uncontested chains rather than grinding purely through stoppage. That’s where they stretch opposition structures.
North Melbourne’s Test Is Different Now
North’s rise under Alastair Clarkson is built on pressure and stoppage control. McKercher, Sheezel and Davies-Uniacke give them genuine drive and creativity.
But this is a different layer. They carry an 18-game losing streak in South Australia, lose midfield depth with O’Sullivan out, and step into a neutral regional setting against a side that thrives in these conditions.
Effort won’t be the issue. Execution will be.
Where It Turns
This game likely breaks at transition. If North controls stoppage, they can stay in the contest. If Brisbane exits cleanly and finds space, they take control quickly.
Brisbane’s ball movement from defensive 50 remains the pressure point—and the moment where this game can open up.
The Verdict
North Melbourne has improved. The gap is real—but smaller.
Brisbane, though, regains structure, carries midfield depth, and brings a system that travels. Even off the main stage, they remain composed in these conditions.
Prediction: Brisbane win.
Published 10-April-2026
